Search results for "taloudelliset ennusteet"
showing 10 items of 13 documents
Exploring the unknowns : State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research
2022
The forest-based sector is facing one the greatest transitions in its history in the face of global megatrends. Globalization, sustainability challenges and the ICT sector have put the world in a new light. Whereas some of the recent developments have resulted in challenges for the traditional forest industry, many positive expectations and opportunities are also seen to arise in the form of the transition to a sustainable bio-economy. However, to be able to fully seize the opportunity, the industry has to navigate through contingency where preparedness can have a major impact. Foresight as a strategic approach can help to prepare and sensitize decision-makers to be prepared for the future.…
Household optimism and overborrowing
2018
We use Finnish household-level data from 1994 to 2013 to measure how often and what kind of forecast errors households make and how the errors are linked to the households' borrowing behavior and overindebtedness. We find that those households that make the largest optimistic forecast errors have greater debt-to-income ratios. They also are more likely to report that they suffer from excessive debt loads and have problems in coping with their bills. There are no such systematic effects for the households that make pessimistic forecast errors. peerReviewed
Dynamics of the Shapovalov mid-size firm model
2020
Forecasting and analyses of the dynamics of financial and economic processes such as deviations of macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, unemployment, and inflation) from their long-term trends, asset markets volatility, etc., are challenging because of the complexity of these processes. Important related research questions include, first, how to determine the qualitative properties of the dynamics of these processes, namely, whether the process is stable, unstable, chaotic (deterministic), or stochastic; and second, how best to estimate its quantitative indicators including dimension, entropy, and correlation characteristics. These questions can be studied both empirically and theoretically. In t…
Study of irregular dynamics in an economic model: attractor localization and Lyapunov exponents
2021
Cyclicity and instability inherent in the economy can manifest themselves in irregular fluctuations, including chaotic ones, which significantly reduces the accuracy of forecasting the dynamics of the economic system in the long run. We focus on an approach, associated with the identification of a deterministic endogenous mechanism of irregular fluctuations in the economy. Using of a mid-size firm model as an example, we demonstrate the use of effective analytical and numerical procedures for calculating the quantitative characteristics of its irregular limiting dynamics based on Lyapunov exponents, such as dimension and entropy. We use an analytical approach for localization of a global at…
Bayesian applications in dynamic econometric models
2009
The purpose of this thesis is to provide a few new ideas to the field of Bayesian econometrics. In particular, the focus of the thesis is on analyzing dynamic econometric models. In the first essay, we provide an easily implementable method for the Bayesian analysis of a simple hybrid DSGE model of Clarida et al. (1999). The forecasting properties of the model are tested against commonly used forecasting tools, such as Bayesian VARs and naïve forecasts based on univariate random walks. In particular, the predictability of three key macroeconomic-variables, inflation, short-term nominal interest rate and a measure of output gap, are studied using quarterly ex post and real-time U.S. data.Our…
Aikasarjamallit apuna Suomen talouden seurannassa
2019
Viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana kansainvälisessä ekonometrisessa tutkimuskirjallisuudessa on esitetty useita makrotaloudellista tilaa kuvaavien muuttujien informaatiota yhdistäviä lyhyen aikavälin mallinnus- ja ennustemenetelmiä. Näitä ns. nowcasting-menetelmiä on myös onnistuneesti hyödynnetty ja sovellettu Suomen talouden seurantaan. Tässä artikkelissa esittelemme katsauksen monella taholla tehtyyn kehitystyöhön ja näiden hankkeiden yhteydessä saatuihin tuloksiin Suomen aineiston tapauksessa. Suomen taloutta koskevien suhdanneindeksien hyödyntämisen myötä suhdanteiden käännepisteiden määrittäminen on tarkempaa ja käännepisteiden tuottamia taantumajaksoja voidaan vastaavasti ennustaa binä…
Is there support for the sticky information models in the Michigan inflation expectation data?
2007
Time-delay control for stabilization of the Shapovalov mid-size firm model
2020
Control and stabilization of irregular and unstable behavior of dynamic systems (including chaotic processes) are interdisciplinary problems of interest to a variety of scientific fields and applications. Using the control methods allows improvements in forecasting the dynamics of unstable economic processes and offers opportunities for governments, central banks, and other policy makers to modify the behaviour of the economic system to achieve its best performance. One effective method for control of chaos and computation of unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) is the unstable delay feedback control (UDFC) approach, suggested by K. Pyragas. This paper proposes the application of the Pyragas' me…
Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity
2018
Recently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU informatio…